How to Make It in Crypto in 2026 Without Getting Lucky

In this episode of When Shift Happens, I sit down with Raoul Pal for the 2nd time this year to discuss how to survive and succeed in crypto in 2026 without relying on luck, perfect timing, or constant trading. At the centre of the conversation is a deceptively simple framework: hold the right assets, understand your risk tolerance, and do absolutely nothing. Beneath that simplicity, however, lies a demanding discipline shaped by time horizons, liquidity cycles, and a thorough understanding of human behaviour.

Raoul’s argument is not that markets are easy. It is that most people are playing the wrong game. Crypto feels chaotic because expectations are compressed into weeks and months, while the forces driving adoption and value creation operate over years. His entire thesis rests on one shift in perspective: this is not a four-year cycle anymore. It is closer to five. “Everything else,” he says bluntly, “is just noise.”

Time Horizon Mismatch and Why Most People Break

Much of the anger in crypto, Raoul argues, has little to do with being wrong and everything to do with being early or impatient. People pour their hopes, frustrations, and financial insecurity into their portfolios, then demand immediate results. When those results fail to appear, disappointment turns into rage, conspiracy, or blame.

He is clear-eyed about the social context. For many, crypto feels like the only remaining path to upside in a world of stagnant wages and currency debasement. That desperation, however, pushes people further down the “casino route” rather than into long-term compounding. The irony is that crypto’s long-term proposition is extraordinary. At roughly three to four trillion dollars in total market capitalisation, the asset class is still in its infancy. Raoul estimates we are only about three percent of the way to a potential $100 trillion market over the next decade.

The problem is not opportunity. It is time horizon mismatch. People want a 20x this month, not over ten years. When the market inevitably deviates from expectations, they assume the thesis is broken, rather than recognising that short-term noise overwhelms the signal.

Liquidity Is the Game Everyone Underestimates

Raoul repeatedly returns to a single macro variable: liquidity is the dominant force in markets today. Crypto, as the most liquidity-sensitive asset class, reacts violently when liquidity tightens and explodes when it returns.

The last year has been difficult, not because crypto is “over,” but because liquidity was not required yet. Debt maturities were extended, pushing the point of maximum refinancing pressure out to 2026. That shift quietly lengthened the cycle. “Normally, year four is when the printing happens,” Raoul explains. “This time it got pushed out.”

As a result, many assets bled sideways, leverage was flushed out, and narratives collapsed. None of this invalidated the long-term thesis. It simply exposed how many investors were positioned too far out on the risk curve, expecting liquidity to rescue everything. It can’t do that anymore. There are now too many tokens, too many weak projects, and too little patience.

Buy and Hold Is Not Naïve. It’s Rational.

One of the most counterintuitive lessons Raoul draws from his career is that short-term trading loses its edge as markets mature. He left the hedge fund world two decades ago after watching professional investors destroy returns by obsessing over monthly mark-to-market performance.

The same dynamic is now playing out in crypto. As institutions, algorithms, and professional traders enter the space, short-term alpha disappears. What remains is the long-term adoption trend. “Time horizon,” he says, “is the single most underrated edge.”

This is why buy-and-hold, when done with the right assets and realistic expectations, continues to outperform. It is not exciting. It does not satisfy the need for constant action. But it aligns with how exponential systems actually grow.

The Minimum Regret Portfolio

Rather than chasing maximum upside, Raoul advocates building what he calls a “minimum regret portfolio.” The goal is not to avoid volatility. It is to avoid catastrophic mistakes that permanently destroy capital.

This framework naturally favours large, liquid, layer ones with real adoption. These assets may draw down 30, 40, or even 60 percent, but they are unlikely to go to zero in a single cycle. More speculative bets, if taken at all, should be small enough to be emotionally and financially survivable.

Crucially, he warns against “renting conviction.” Every major loss he has suffered came from borrowing someone else’s confidence rather than doing his own work. In a world where research tools are freely available, and AI can analyse on-chain data in seconds, ignorance is no longer a defensible excuse.

Networks Beat Narratives

Traditional finance is built on linear models. It values assets based on cash flows, mean reversion, and historical comparables. That framework works well for mature companies and slow-moving systems. It struggles, however, with technologies that grow non-linearly.

Crypto assets are not businesses to be valued primarily through discounted cash flows. They are networks. Their value compounds as users, developers, and activity grow. Raoul leans heavily on network effects and Metcalfe’s Law, arguing that adoption, not narratives, drives long-term returns.

This lens also reframes volatility. Early-stage networks are supposed to be volatile. Amazon fell by over 90 percent multiple times before becoming one of the most valuable companies in history. Crypto is no different. The “meat of the growth,” I chip in, happens later, not at the beginning.

Conviction, Public Scrutiny, and Letting Go

Being publicly wrong, or early, carries a psychological cost. Raoul speaks candidly about online abuse, misinformation, and coordinated attacks designed to create distrust and discontent. The emotional toll is real, especially when people anchor their financial pain to public figures.

Over time, he has learned a difficult lesson: you cannot save everyone. Some people do not want to be helped. Others refuse to engage with nuance or long-term thinking. Letting go of that responsibility, while continuing to communicate honestly, is part of survival.

When asked what voice guides him each morning, his answer is simple: “Keep going.” Focus on direction, not daily price action. Worry less about noise and more about whether you are still aligned with the future you are trying to build.

The Long Game, Revisited

The episode closes where it began. Making it in crypto in 2026 is not about finding the perfect entry or chasing every new narrative. It is about understanding your risk tolerance, choosing assets with real adoption potential, and giving exponential systems time to work.

The framework is almost frustrating in its simplicity. But that is precisely why it works. In a market addicted to motion, doing nothing may be the hardest discipline of all, and the most rewarding.

👉If you enjoyed reading the summary, head over to When Shift Happens on YouTube or your favorite podcast platform to access the full convo.