Bitcoin, Boring Wealth, and the Case for Thinking in Decades

In this episode of When Shift Happens, I sit down with Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, to discuss why Bitcoin may be worth millions per coin, why Solana has one of the strongest setups he has ever seen, and why the most reliable path to wealth in crypto is also the least exciting one.

Hougan is not a chain maximalist. He comes from traditional finance, spent more than a decade in ETFs, and now sits at the intersection of institutional capital and digital assets. That vantage point shapes everything he believes about crypto today. This conversation is not about timing the market. It is about understanding the forces that move it over decades.

Why Bitcoin Is Still Early

Today, Bitcoin represents roughly 10 percent of the global store of value market, with gold making up most of the rest. That alone explains why he believes the asset remains early, regardless of price. He points to rooms full of financial advisers, the people who control most of the world’s wealth, and notes that only 5 to 10 percent of them currently allocate to crypto on behalf of clients.

“Until that room is every hand,” he says, “then it is definitely still early.”

The comparison to gold matters because gold itself has grown far more than most investors realise. Over the last 20 years, the gold market expanded by roughly 10x, driven largely by debt accumulation, money printing, and institutional acceptance. Bitcoin today is roughly the same size gold was when the first gold ETFs launched.

For Hougan, this means if the store of value market grows again over the next 20 years, and Bitcoin merely holds its share, the price moves dramatically higher. If Bitcoin takes share from gold along the way, the outcome becomes even more extreme.

The “Two Ways to Win” Framework

At the centre of Hougan’s thinking is what he calls his “two ways to win” framework.

“When I invest in Bitcoin,” he explains, “I’m betting two things. One, the global store of value market will grow. And two, Bitcoin will take an increasing share of that market. Only one of those needs to happen for me to do well.”

This is what allows him to think in million-dollar outcomes without relying on speculation. If gold continues its historical trajectory and Bitcoin simply remains relevant, Bitcoin prices move into seven figures. If Bitcoin also displaces gold over time, the upside compounds.

“You are not suggesting a huge change,” he says. “You are just suggesting that what has been happening will continue to happen.”

That logic is what leads to Hougan’s much-discussed projection that one Bitcoin could be worth around $6.5 million in 20 years. Not because of a sudden technological breakthrough, but because monetary debasement and asset scarcity are long-running forces that rarely reverse.

Bitcoin, Gold, and the Cost of Distrust

A rising gold price, Hougan argues, is not a threat to Bitcoin. It is confirmation of the same underlying problem.

“The same reason people are buying gold is the reason they are buying Bitcoin,” he explains. “They no longer trust the fiat system.”

Gold buyers today are largely central banks. Bitcoin buyers are individuals, wealth advisers, and a growing number of institutions. The motivation is identical: diversification away from state-controlled money.

Hougan’s own portfolio reflects that belief. Between Bitcoin, crypto, and gold, 30 to 40 percent of his personal holdings sit outside the traditional US dollar system. For most investors, he believes even moving from zero to five percent would be transformative.

Gold still plays a role, not because it outperforms Bitcoin, but because humility matters. “Why not own both?” he asks. “If you are wrong, you are still in a good place.”

Why Being Boring Is the Point

One of the strongest themes in the conversation is behavioural, not technical.

Hougan repeatedly returns to the idea that wealth is built through boring decisions, not exciting ones. Long-term holders are the ones who benefit most from crypto’s growth.

“People have made a lot of money being wise and boring,” he says. “That’s how they make money.”

He argues that investors should separate their portfolios into a core that is disciplined and long-term, and a small portion where risk and experimentation are allowed. The mistake, he warns, is letting excitement dominate the whole portfolio.

The same principle applies to expectations. Crypto rewards patience far more reliably than cleverness. The best returns have historically gone to those who bought early, held through volatility, and resisted the urge to optimise constantly.

Solana and the Second “Two Ways to Win” Bet

Hougan applies the same framework to Solana.

In this case, the two bets are that stablecoins and tokenisation grow dramatically, and that Solana captures an increasing share of that market.

On the first point, he is unusually confident. He cites projections from the US Treasury that stablecoins could grow more than 10x, and statements from BlackRock that every major asset class will eventually be tokenised. Solana’s role, then, is about positioning. Ethereum remains dominant, and he owns a large amount of it. But Solana has two advantages that the market often underestimates: ease of use and a culture of shipping.

He says, “Investors talk about throughput and decentralisation, but end users care about whether something just works.” “Investors like to talk about throughput…but for an enduser, ease of use is the killer…and Solana is just easy to use, just dead easy to use.”

That usability, combined with rising revenue and growing ETF interest, is why Hougan believes Solana could plausibly reach a trillion-dollar valuation over the coming years. It does not need to beat Ethereum outright. It simply needs to grow alongside a rapidly expanding market.

What the Market Is Still Missing

Late in the conversation, Hougan highlights what he believes the market continues to underestimate.

First is the likelihood that sovereign entities begin buying Bitcoin outright, not just seizing it. The probability may be low, but it is not zero, and the price impact would be immediate.

Second is the speed of tokenisation. Investors often treat it as a distant future, despite infrastructure being built today by the world’s largest financial institutions.

Third is the rise of what Hougan calls the “debasement trade”. Just like the scale of AI got underestimated in 2022, 2023, the theme is still early for crypto. Once it becomes widely understood, it could dominate portfolios for years.

The One Thing to Remember

When asked for a single takeaway from the conversation, Hougan says,  “Be boring and wealthy.”

That, he argues, is the real edge. Not predicting next week’s price, but having conviction about where the world is going over the next decade, and investing accordingly. 

👉If you enjoyed reading the summary, head over to When Shift Happens on YouTube or your favorite podcast platform to access the full convo.