Why Tushar Jain Thinks Crypto Has Bottomed and the Three Tokens He Is Betting On

In this episode of When Shift Happens, I sit down with Tushar Jain, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Multicoin Capital, to discuss how he identifies market turning points, builds conviction in volatile assets, and separates a real investment edge from an emotional decision. Through Solana, Hyperliquid, and Zcash, the conversation explores a harder question: how do you remain committed through crypto’s most punishing cycles?

When Conviction Feels Uncomfortable

Tushar believes the market is close to, or may already have passed, a bottom. Instead of trying to identify the exact moment, he watches for changes in behaviour, especially when bad news stops driving prices lower.  After nearly a decade of professional crypto investing, he understands his own psychological responses to cycles, and he combines that signal with conversations across the industry. All these factors and evidence that adoption is continuing even when prices do not reflect it bolster his conviction. As he puts it, “When I feel really dumb, I know I should probably buy. And when I feel like an absolute genius, I should probably take something off the table.” Conviction, in other words, rarely feels comfortable when it matters most.

Strong Views Without Maximalism

Multicoin is closely associated with its early belief in Solana, and Tushar remains bullish on its architecture. He sees it as a foundation for internet capital markets, particularly spot trading and tokenised securities. Its credible neutrality may also appeal to institutions unwilling to let competitors control their settlement layer.

Hyperliquid, however, has built a powerful lead in derivatives. Rather than forcing himself to choose one winner, Tushar owns both. Solana and Hyperliquid serve different parts of the market, and the eventual economics of each remain uncertain.

“I’m not a maxi about anything,” he says. That distinction matters. Conviction means holding a well-researched view, not turning an asset into part of your identity. A thesis should be strong enough to guide action but flexible enough to survive new evidence.

Sizing Without False Precision

Once an investor finds a strong idea, the next question is how much to allocate. Tushar’s answer is direct: “Sizing is an art, not a science.” Models can provide guideposts, but longer-term investing still requires judgement about probability, opportunity size, and execution risk.

He prefers concentration in the best ideas and uses regret minimisation when several opportunities look compelling. For a volatile new position, he divides the intended allocation into thirds: one third immediately, one third gradually on a schedule, and the last third opportunistically during weakness. This reduces the regret of waiting endlessly for a perfect entry or deploying everything before another decline.

It also explains why Multicoin is “actively managed, not actively traded.” Tushar believes repeated attempts to sell during highs and buy back lower often leave investors emotionally whipsawed. Timing broad cycles may be possible, but consistently timing short-term moves is not.

The Four Sources of Edge

Tushar identifies four sources of investment edge: access or information, analytical understanding, behavioural control, and structural advantage.

Access means reaching people or opportunities that others cannot. Analytical edge comes from understanding an asset’s economics and risks better than the market. Behavioral edge is the ability to manage fear and euphoria. Structural edge comes from advantages such as patient capital or a longer time horizon.

He considers behavioural edge the hardest, even though inexperienced investors often assume they possess it, and many others believe they can simply buy low and sell high without better information or analysis. Tushar’s rule is stricter: if he cannot identify the specific edge behind a decision, he does not make it.

Why Zcash Stands Out

Zcash is Tushar’s clearest non-consensus idea for 2026. To him, it represents a return to crypto’s cypherpunk roots: privacy, censorship resistance, and self-sovereignty. Unlike Solana or Hyperliquid, it cannot be valued mainly through revenue and cash flow. Tushar thinks in relative terms. Could Zcash become a top-ten or top-five asset? He believes it can.

His conviction strengthened after an earlier rally reversed, and the project’s early supporters remained deeply engaged. Their persistence showcased durability, and for Tushar, Zcash represents the other end of crypto’s future: private, decentralised money that cannot easily be frozen or controlled.

The Bonus Update: Conviction Tested in Real Time

The episode includes a special follow-up recorded after two major developments that occurred following the original conversation.

First, Zcash developers disclosed a bug in the Orchard shielded pool that could theoretically have enabled double-spending. Tushar did not react during the initial panic. He waited several days, examined the evidence, and watched whether funds left the pool in a way that suggested the bug had been exploited.

When that did not happen, Multicoin concluded that the market had overreacted and increased its Zcash position. This was not an instant attempt to buy a crash. Tushar deliberately created distance between the event and his decision, allowing time for evidence to emerge rather than letting volatility dictate his response.

The second development was Multicoin’s Hyperliquid valuation report, which included a base case of $319 for HYPE and a more optimistic scenario above $600. Tushar openly acknowledges that the firm is “talking its book.” His answer is not that readers should trust Multicoin, but that they should test its methodology. The valuation depends on assumptions about derivatives growth, decentralised exchanges gaining market share, Hyperliquid retaining its position, and stablecoin balances growing alongside activity.

The bonus segment makes the episode more valuable because it shows his frameworks under pressure. Conviction is not stubbornness. It means pausing during panic, asking whether the thesis has genuinely changed, and acting only after emotion gives way to analysis.

Why Tushar Remains in Crypto

After his longtime co-founder, Kyle Samani, left Multicoin, Tushar reconsidered what he wanted from the next chapter of his life. His framework was to imagine having ten years left, long enough to build something meaningful but short enough to force honesty.

He realised he still loves investing, working with founders, and finding ideas that the consensus has missed. More importantly, he believes blockchains are the right foundation for future capital markets and transactions between humans and AI systems.

“You have to be excited about the future,” Tushar says. For him, optimism is not blind faith, but a conscious decision to keep doing the work when pessimism is easier.

👉If you enjoyed reading the summary, head over to When Shift Happens on YouTube or your favorite podcast platform to access the full convo. 

https://youtu.be/Ah0D2HER4N4?si=3Z7ItuCbMo4nJ5RO